![]() Note that I am not saying “eating meat will only decrease your lifespan by three weeks”. You probably lose twenty times that amount just cooking and preparing it. That means each serving of meat costs you a minute of your life. So overall, if you eat processed meat every day your entire life, you’ll lose about three weeks of life expectancy from colon cancer. Suppose that every case of cancer, fatal and non-fatal alike, causes you additional non-death-related distress equal to two years of your life. Multiply out and an 0.4% chance of losing 10 years means that you lose on average two weeks. Sweeping a lot of complexity under the rug and taking a very liberal estimate, the average death from colon cancer costs you ten years of your life. The average age at diagnosis of colon cancer is 69 the average life expectancy is 79. So one extra case per hundred means if you eat bacon daily then there’s an 0.4% chance you will die from a cancer you would not otherwise have gotten. A bit less than half of colon cancers are fatal. “One extra case of bowel-cancer in 100 lifetime bacon-eaters” is better.īut let me try to give even more perspective. This teaches us something important: “risk professor” is an awesome job title and “David Spiegelhalter, Risk Professor” ought to be a BBC television show starring Harrison Ford.īut also: use absolute risk instead of relative risk! “21% of bowel cancers are caused by meat” doesn’t give you a really good handle on how worried you should be. Can we quantify the risk better?įrom the BBC article: “‘ one extra case of bowel cancer in 100 lifetime bacon-eaters,’ argues Sir David Spiegelhalter, a risk professor from the University of Cambridge.” But that’s still a lot of room for it to be bad. ![]() This was very correctly debunked by infographics like this one:īut I feel like this leaves something to be desired. A lot of people used headlines like Processed Meats Rank Alongside Smoking As Cancer Causes. I thought of this the other day when everyone started sharing that study about meat causing colon cancer. I told her that the cookies were probably taking more time off her life than the medication would, and I assured her the medication would probably add more value to her life than cookies. She still wasn’t convinced, so I asked her if she ate cookies. And I asked her, “Which would you prefer – living 80 years severely ill, or living 79.5 years feeling mostly okay?” So I looked it up, did the calculations, and found that it would on average take a couple of months off her life. “But,” I pointed out, “you’re really miserable.” She looked it up online and told me she wouldn’t take it because was associated with an X% increase in mortality. Thus, we encourage greater cooperation among app developer organizations to leverage PBRs.A recent formative experience: a seriously ill patient came in and I recommended a strong psychiatric drug. We demonstrate that distributed sensemaking among app developers, who potentially compete against each other, is crucial for enhancing app competitive performance, especially when technological uncertainty is high. Using a dataset of 933 PBR-based app innovations, the findings significantly contribute to our understanding of the duality between competition and cooperation in a platform ecosystem. We examine the effectiveness of the level of distributed sensemaking about PBRs in a context of technological uncertainty arising from either PBR’s technological unrelatedness with prior PBRs or app complexity. App developer organizations, however, face high levels of technological uncertainty as they create app-level innovations based on PBRs. To facilitate app innovations, platform owners regularly release platform boundary resources (PBRs) by adding novel technologies at the platform level. Although mobile platform ecosystems are highly competitive environments, they provide important entrepreneurial opportunities for app developer organizations.
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